Macroeconomic rashin zaman lafiya

Macroeconomic kwanciyar hankali - shi ne wajen wani daidaituwa fiye da da mulki. Yi ya nuna cewa a cikin tattalin arzikin akwai wani ma'auni. Bayan wani lokaci na ci gaba da kuma ci gaba ta zo da wani lokaci na koma bayan tattalin arziki, tare da rashin aikin yi. Haka kuma, tattalin arziki da hawan keke da kuma daban-daban na lokaci jinkiri kuma sauran fasali. Saboda haka, bisa ga tsawon su ne takaice, matsakaici da kuma dogon.

Short hawan keke gano Dzhozef Kitchin, British tattalin arziki. Ya alaka su tare da hawa da sauka a cikin zinariya reserves. Periodicity, wanda aka kafa Kitchin, shi ne arba'in watanni.

Wesley Mitchell, kafa econometrics, ya yi ĩmãni cewa short hawan keke dalilin da yake a cikin kudi yawa, kuma sun amince da baya mita.

A gaskiya, wadannan hawan keke suna da alaka da rashin daidaituwa a kasuwannin. Canje-canje a cikin bashi Sphere ne dalilin su, don haka suka bayyana a cikin wani nau'i na bashi crunch.

A cikin rabi na biyu na karni na 19th, Klement Zhuglyar, a Faransa tattalin arziki, yayi nazari akan talakawan hawan keke. Su yi wa ya gan, ma, a cikin filin na bashi. Klement Zhuglyar gano mita na sakandare hawan keke a takwas zuwa goma shekara.

A wannan irin hawan keke ne hawan keke da kuma yi alama da Simon Kuznets. Ya alaka su da wani lokaci-lokaci (kowane goma sha biyar ko ashirin da shekaru) hažaka gidaje.

Long (ko dogon) hawan keke zama saboda canje-canje a cikin kayayyakin more rayuwa, makamashi da kuma key fasahar. In ba haka ba, da sake zagayowar kuma ake kira Kondratiev sake zagayowar, bisa ga koyarwar Rasha sunan - Nikolaya Kondrateva. Ya yi karatu ci samar kuzarin kawo cikas, karfe, da kuza, kazalika da talakawan matakin na lada, farashin, waje cinikayya da sauran Manuniya a Amurka da wasu kasashen yammacin Turai kasashe for shekaru 140 (tun da na karshe biyu shekarun da suka gabata na 18th karni da kuma kawo karshen shekaru ashirin daga cikin karni na 20th). Kondratyev gudanar econometric nazarin, kuma Ya ƙaddara cewa da yawa hawan keke karshe 54-55 shekaru, yayin da kiyaye hawa da sauka lokaci.

Zuwa ƙasa lokaci a lokacin da canza core fasahar da fasaha Tsarin yana daga 20 zuwa shekaru 25.

Tashin lokaci, a lokacin da jama'a ke fuskantar mai yawan tattalin arzikin da fasaha da kimiyya, yana daga 25 zuwa shekaru 30.

A ma'auni a cikin tattalin arzikin ne mãsu fakowa domin dalilai da yawa. Na farko, da rashin zaman lafiya a cikin Macro sun fi mayar dogara a kan dalilai kamar da fasaha kayan aiki samar. M canje-canje tsokane short lokaci na koma bayan tattalin arziki da kuma dawo da, da waɗannan da aka sanya kasa akai-akai (misali, da gina sabon gadoji da kuma da sauran fannin jiki), sa wadannan sau daina.

Duk da haka, macroeconomic rashin zaman lafiya da aka sa ba kawai ta wannan factor. A matsalar na periodicity na hawa da sauka a cikin tattalin arzikin bai zauna sha'aninsu dabam babu wani daga cikin masana tattalin arziki na 19-20 ƙarni. Kokarin gane Sanadin wannan sabon abu, suka halitta mai yawa daban-daban theories. Babban wadanda ake bayyana ta da rashin zaman lafiya da tattalin arziki a cikin wadannan hanya.

1. A cewar wannan mahanga ta farko, da sakamako daga cikin mataki generated da cyclical totur da kuma multiplier.

2. proponents ka'idar siyasa kasuwanci sake zagayowar yi imani da cewa macroeconomic rashin zaman lafiya ya taso ne saboda abin da masu tsara manufofi a filin na kudi, budgeting, rance da kuma haraji.

3. The kare ka'idar da ma'auni kasuwanci sake zagayowar dalilai ganin shi lilo Trend a cikin gajeren lokaci lokaci.

4. Masana kimiyya theorize real kasuwanci sake zagayowar, bayar da shawarar cewa macroeconomic rashin zaman lafiya faruwa saboda kwatsam canje-canje a cikin daban-daban sassa na tattalin arzikin, cewa shi ne, a lokacin da sharply canza samar da fasaha.

Kowace daga cikin wadannan wuraren view wasu har daidai nuna dalilan da jinkirin. Amma da janar ka'idar cewa zai gane duk tattalin arziki makarantu, a yau ba ya wanzu.