A fall na ruble musayar kudi (2014). Dalilin da fall na ruble

A Rasha tattalin arzikin da ya shawo kan wani zagaye na matsaloli, daya daga wanda - da weakening na kasa kudin da dollar. Mene ne dalilin faduwar ruble? Mẽne ne - wani tsari sabon abu ko tabbas sakamako? Mene ne sakamakon ga talakawa 'yan kasar da kasuwanci?

A pessimistic forecast

A cewar wasu manazarta, da US dollar ta darajar da karshen 2014 iya girma zuwa 37-40 rubles (ko da shi zai kasance da talakawan Amurka dollar musayar kudi). Babban dalilin da weakening na Rasha banknotes kira tabarbarewar na kasa da tattalin arziki. Masana, da suke goyon bayan irin wannan pessimistic hangen nesa, kuma yi imani da cewa riga low GDP kuzarin kawo cikas zai fada m, da kuma babban birnin kasar - gudãna daga ƙarƙashinsu daga kasar.

A matsayi na ruble, manazarta pessimists yi imani za su rasa ƙarfi ba kawai a kan dollar, amma kuma ga sauran manyan duniya ago. Akwai kuma wani ra'ayin cewa yanzu akwai wani lokaci ne na zaman lafiya da ruble ragewar darajar kuɗi a Rasha tattalin arziki, saboda tabarbarewar ma'auni na biya. Worsening matsayi na Rasha kudin, manazarta ce, za su iya taimakawa ga manufofin na Tarayya Reserve, wanda for 2014 iya ci gaba da rage monetary matakan tasiri a kan tattalin arzikin, kuma a shekarar 2015, za a fara tada refinancing kudi.

Kamar yadda yan kasuwa

Ma'aikata a filin daga kasashen waje musayar ma'amaloli yana dauke da cewa matsayin da ruble kan dollar ba muni fiye da na sauran ago. kasuwar matsin lamba, bisa ga yan kasuwa, aka kuma gwada, da kuma Australia dollar, da Argentine peso da Baturke na kasa kudin - da lira. All daga gare su, kamar yadda da ruble - abin da ake kira "kayayyaki" kudi. A karshen shekarar 2014 da dollar, bisa ga cinikayya masana, shi iya kudin 34-35 rubles, Tarayyar Turai - game 45-46 raka'a na Rasha kudin. A cikin shekara, duk da haka, akwai iya zama hawa da sauka.

Babban dalilin faduwar ruble, imani yan kasuwa - a duniya reorientation zuba jari gudana - babban birnin kasar outflow daga kunno kai kasuwanni, wanda nasa ne Rasha, da kuma zuba jari, a cikin tattalin arziki na raya ƙasashe. Wannan Trend iya zama dacewa a cikin shekaru masu zuwa. Duk da haka, da weakening na kasa kudin na Rasha Federation, kamar yadda kudi masana yi imani, zai iya karfi da jin 'yan ƙasa: a high yiwuwa na girma mabukaci farashin.

A ra'ayi na kimiyya yanayi

Wasu masana daga yawan tattalin arziki yi imani da cewa depreciation na ruble wãyi protracted hali a 2014. A sakamakon wannan hukunci na Central Bank domin rage waje musayar kasuwa tsari iya duba. Duk da haka, da zarar ta musayar kudi stabilizes, da babban bankin iya sake raunana iko a kan umurnin. Sosai a cikin kasa monetary siyasa, kamar yadda masana suka yi ĩmãni, dogara a kan dace fassarar da kuma fahimtar da ci gaban tattalin arziki. Alal misali, magana game da ci gaban da real tattalin arzikin a kan misali na raya ƙasashe, bisa ga masana kimiyya, babu filaye, saboda akwai tsada sosai aiki.

Artificial girma ta hanyar jari na ãdalci zuba jari - An, a cewar wasu masana, "kumfa" cewa zai fashe ƙarshe. Duk da haka, domin Rasha, kamar yadda masana kimiyya suka yi ĩmãni, da ci gaban tattalin arziki na iya zama quite ri, kuma shi ne weakening na kudin - da real factor na ta kara kuzari. A cikin fall na ruble ƙara fitar da kaya, yayin da masu zuba jari riba yakan (amma kuma iya rage yiwuwa na kasuwa).

A kaffa labari

Duk da yawan mummunan hanyar al'amura game da ruble kan dollar kuma da tasiri a kan tattalin arzikin Rasha, akwai tsakanin tattalin arziki ne quite wani kaffa view of halin da ake ciki. Akwai version cewa a shekarar 2014, wasu daga cikin rikicin, halayyar da suka gabata da shekaru, rabu da mu da Yuro zone, wanda shi ne babban cinikayya na Rasha. A tattalin arzikin kasashen inda da hukuma kudin - da Yuro, a 2014 zai iya girma da fiye da kashi 1%.

Wannan zai iya haifar da ci gaban da Rasha fitarwa na raw kayan, kazalika da karuwa a farashin da shi. Idan hakan ya faru, shi za su yi girma, da kuma cinikayya ragi na Rasha Federation, da kuma bayan shi zai rage gudu da outflow na waje babban birnin kasar. A sakamakon za a goyan bayan matsayin ruble kan dollar. Kamar yadda irin wannan kaffa labari, Rasha ta GDP girma a karshen 2014 iya wuce 2.5%, yayin da dollar darajar musayar kudi ba zai wuce 33 rubles. Saboda haka, ba hasashen, a lokacin da zai karkatar da ruble cikin 2014.

retrospective

Daga cikin tattalin arziki akwai wani ra'ayi cewa depreciation na ruble dangane da manyan duniya ago - sabon abu quite sabon da halitta gaba daya zuwa ga Rasha tattalin arzikin. Ko da ba mu yi la'akari da rikicin na 1998 , a lokacin da Rasha na kasa banki rubutu dollar fadi sau da dama, da isa ya tuna da koma bayan tattalin arziki na tattalin arziki a 2008-2009. Sa'an nan da Rasha kudin ya halartar akalla wani karfi ragewar darajar kuɗi fiye da a 2014. Duk da haka, kamar yadda m events nuna, da ruble kan gaba 'yan shekaru, amincewa ya buga da matsayi na dollar kuma Yuro.

Zaka kuma iya tuno da kudin ciniki da fall na 2012 - lokacin da hanya da aka halin da sosai high volatility, kwararru da yawa annabta sananne auka daga cikin ruble, amma wannan bai faru ba. Yau, da Rasha kudin da ya auku a farashin, amma shi ne tushen a kan kwarewa da suka gabata da shekaru, da kuma ba zai iya bayar da lokaci ya yi nisa-kai karshe a kara raya kasa da tattalin arziki. A 2008-2009, da tattalin arziki da takamaiman dalilai domin fall na ruble. 2014 th iya bayyanãwa wasu dalilai da shafi da Rasha kudin.

Trends a kasashe masu tasowa

Akwai wani ra'ayi tsakanin masana harkokin tattalin arziki da cewa ruble aka nũna a kudin ciniki a kusa da wannan a matsayin banknotes da kuma sauran kasashe masu tasowa, musamman ma kasashen BRICS (wanda matsayi kamar Brazil, Indiya, Rasha, Sin da kuma Afirka ta Kudu, wani lokacin). Gaskiyar cewa yanzu akwai wani duniya zuba jari outflow na waje masu zuba jari daga wadannan tattalin arziki. Raunana kasa kudin, kamar yadda akwai dalili mai kyau ga fall - da ruble, da real, yuan ko Rand ba kome - wani factor na kowa zuwa kasashe na kungiyar. Rasha, haka ma rasa kyawawa ga kasashen waje babban birnin kasar.

A outflow na zuba jari ne ma nasaba da cewa da Amurka ta Tarayya Reserve hankali tsaurara monetary siyasa, rage bayar da unsecured daloli da kuma kara m amfani rates a kan basussuka. Wadannan da misali daga cikin manyan tattalin arzikin duniya "tightening su belts" da kuma sauran kasashen da suka ci gaba. Masu zuba jari suna ganin wannan Trend, imbued tare da babban tabbaci a wadannan kasuwanni da kuma fi son su aika da babban birnin kasar a can, maimakon a kasashe masu tasowa. Masana harkokin tattalin arziki ma sun nuna cewa, kasashen BRICS kudin da aka ba sosai ya raunana a matsayin dollar ƙarfafa saboda inganta Amurka kasuwar yanayi.

Ciki haddasawa raunanar daga cikin ruble

Fadowa ruble kamar yadda wasu masana suka yi ĩmãni, shi ne saboda ba a waje da kuma ciki dalilai. Da fari dai, saboda da aiki Review Central Bank of Rasha Lasisin daga masu zaman kansu bankuna - a 2013 da hanya da aka za'ayi a ranar 20-banki kudi cibiyoyin. A mafi resonant m - ƙulli daga "Master-Bank", daya daga cikin mafi girma a kasar. Abu na biyu, da Bank of Rasha yanke shawarar hankali bari je na ruble a "free iyo".

Dalilin wannan - da so in karfafa bunkasa masana'antu na kasar, wanda shi ne ba da sauki kula da riba na fitarwa. "Rauni" ruble zai iya muhimmanci rage farashin Rasha da kayayyaki da kuma yin m samar mafi m. Wasu masana tattalin arziki yi imani da cewa ƙi na kasa kudin na Rasha Federation hukuma riba: rance dauka da gwamnatin shaidu a cikin rubles, da man kudaden shiga da aka lasafta a dalar Amurka. Tare da ci gaban da dollar jihar za su sami fiye da a kasa kudin biya sha'awa a kan shaidu.

A sakamakon na weakening na ruble

Abin da ya razana depreciation na ruble? Duk da cewa da weakening na kudin - wannan shi ne, na farko, macroeconomic Manuniya, sakamakon wannan sabon abu za a iya ji da kuma talakawa 'yan ƙasa. A cewar wasu masana, da fall na kasa kudin na Rasha za su iya kai ga mafi girma farashin shigo da kaya (musamman ga lantarki, motoci, magunguna, tufafi, kazalika da kerarre dukiya, raw kayan domin samar da abin da aka saya a kasashen waje).

Price kari a wadannan segments kamar yadda manazarta kiyasta, zai iya isa 15%. Bugu da kari, cikin mafi tsada hutu don Russia kasashen waje (musamman a kasashen da suka ci gaba). Prices for jirgin tikitoci da kuma hotel-hotel aka bayyana mafi yawa a dalar Amurka, da kuma su maras muhimmanci darajar, duk da kudin hawa da sauka, ya zauna canzawa, wanda ke nufin cewa ainihin darajar da tafiya kudi daga translation na Rasha kudin ƙaruwa. Jama'a haka ba zai iya zama sha'aninsu dabam to sabon abu na fadowa Ruble. Abin da za a kara weakening na kasa banknotes na Rasha Federation, da tattalin arziki bayyana quite lucidly.

Fed factor

Kamar yadda muka gani a sama, akwai wani ka'idar cewa ruble kan dollar kai tsaye dogara a kan manufofin na Tarayya Reserve System. Yanzu wannan kudi ma'aikata rage da ake kira shirin na "sassauta" a lokacin da na bugu latsa bayar unsecured daloli. Fed rage sayayya na shaidu da kuma jinginar gida kwangila. A sabon tsarin jagoranci na Tarayya Reserve System yi alkawarin wani m tsarin kula da aiki tare da wannan shirin. Muna da wannan kudi ma'aikata wasu canje-canje a cikin dangantaka tare da hukumomi. Idan shekaru da suka wuce da Fed ya shawo Congress na bukatar kara da rufi na jama'a bashi, amma yanzu shi bai sa hankali - American majalisar yana da hakkin su kyautata rufi a kowane lokaci. Wannan, tattalin arziki imani, taimaka wajen rage kasada na tattalin arzikin Amurka daga Tarayya Reserve System. Saboda haka, Amurka kasuwa yana da kyau dama na tabbatar da dorewar kuma, a sakamakon, ƙarfafa dollar a duniya kudin ciniki.

Ribobi da fursunoni na weakening na ruble

A fall na ruble - wani sabon abu da ba ya ko da yaushe aiki a kan tattalin arzikin barnatar. Akwai wannan sabon abu na amfani ko rashin amfani. Daga cikin indisputable abũbuwan amfãni - ƙara kudaden shiga na aikawa da kamfanoni da, kamar yadda wani sakamako, ci gaban da haraji biya zuwa kasafin kudin na Rasha. Kara kuzari shigo canzawa - farashin waje dukiya ƙaruwa, da kuma zama mafi m saya da kayayyakin cikin gida samar. Yana taimaka wa ci gaban tattalin arziki. Bi da bi, domin mu fahimci abin da ya razana ruble maniyyi, yana da daraja ƙarfafu da cewa a kasar bashin waje. Wannan shi ne kudi cewa mazauna dauki kasashen waje - yawanci a daloli. Saboda haka, babban hasara na weakening na Rasha kudin - karuwa a load a kan wannan bashi. A waje bashi na Rasha shi ne a yanzu a cikin daruruwan biliyoyin daloli (bisa ga lissafin wasu masana, shi ya riga ya wuce da kasar ta kasa da kasa reserves). Long da kuma gagarumin weakening daga cikin ruble zama marasa amfani baki ɗaya ga kamfanonin (da musamman domin sayar da bankuna) cewa bukatar kasashen waje creditors.

kintace na bankuna

The most Rasha da kuma kasashen waje bankuna suna kuma kokarin tantance fall na ruble da kuma hango ko hasashen nan gaba kuzarin kawo cikas na kasa kudin na Rasha Federation. Ya kamata a lura da cewa bashi cibiyoyin an kafa kullum kaffa. Banks kamar "VTB Capital", Morgan Stanley, kazalika da "Alfa-Bank", shi ana sa ran cewa nan da karshen shekarar 2014 da dollar za su kudin 35 rubles. Citi, "Discovery", "Uralsib" ganin ruble muhimmanci karfafa: a cikin wallafe na wadannan cibiyoyin bayyana Figures tsakanin 32.3 da kuma 34.5 na Rasha kudin raka'a ta Amurka banki rubutu zuwa karshen shekara. Da dama dubi pessimistic forecast na ruble da HSBC (35,4 da dollar), "Renaissance" (35.5). A mafi girma weakening na Rasha kudin gani UBS (36,5). Ya kamata a lura da cewa tsakanin tsinkaya game da bankunan na ruble da sauran manyan duniya ago - da Yuro - kuma an lura da wani gagarumin bambanci - daga 43,4 (Morgan Stanley) zuwa 48,4 RF raka'a ta Yuro banknotes (Citi).