Wald gwajin, ko yadda za a samu mafi kyau tabbas sakamakon

Yawa daga cikin mu ba su so a samu a cikin halin da ake ciki inda bayanai game da waje dalilai ne kadan, ko shi ne gaba daya ba a nan, kuma haka wani gaggawa bukatar sa muhimmanci zabi. Mafi m, wannan shi ne dalilin da ya sa mafi yawan mutane fi son kauce wa nauyin da abun ciki da kuma fadin, amma duk da haka mun gwada shiru ofishin. Idan suka san game da wasan ka'idar da na abin da amfani iya concelebrate sharudda Wald, Savage, Hurwitz, savvy aiki mafi yawansu zai yiwuwa sun tafi up hanzari.

Sa ran mafi mũnin

Yana za a iya bayyana a matsayin na farko na sama ka'idojin. Wald gwajin ne sau da yawa ma kira Rarrabẽwa, matsananci mummunan zato, ko m mulkin mugunta. A cikin mahallin iyakance albarkatun da kuma precarious, m matsayi ne quite ma'ana ga reinsurance matsayi, wanda aka tsara domin mafi munin yanayin. Maximin Wald gwajin mayar da hankali a kan maximizing nasara karkashin mafi m hali. Wani misali na yin amfani iya zama a matsayin matsakaicin karuwa a cikin m samun kudin shiga don kara da ƙaramar tsabar kudi adadin da sauransu. N. Wannan dabarun da aka kubutar a lokuta inda yanke shawara mai yi, ba sosai sha'awar wani babban nasara, kamar yadda ya so to inshora kansu da m hasarori. A wasu kalmomin, da Wald gwajin rage hadarin zuwa m, kuma ba ka damar sa mafi m mafita. Irin wannan fuskanta ya sa ya yiwu a samu wani tabbacin m, ko da yake ainihin sakamako bazai haka bad.

Wald gwajin: misali na yin amfani da

Misali wasu kamfanin da yake faruwa, don samar da sabon iri kayayyakin. Kamar haka ya zama dole su yi zabi tsakanin daya daga cikin hudu zabin B _1, B _2, B _3, B _4, kowanne daga abin da bukatar wani takamaiman irin saki ko a hade daga gare ta. Daga cikin yanke shawara za kyakkyawan dogara ne a kan abin da kamfanin zai amfãne. Daidai yadda na kasuwar yanayi a nan gaba shi ne ba a sani ba, amma manazarta hango ko hasashen uku na asali tatsuniyoyinsu: C _1, C _2, C _3. Wadannan data yi a tebur na yiwu lashe zabin da suka dace kowane biyu na yiwuwa mafita da kuma m halin da ake ciki.

Amfani da Wald gwajin, ya kamata ka zabi mafi kyau dabarun, wanda za a yi la'akari ga mafi kyau duka sha'anin. A cikin akwati, wasan kwaikwayon nuna alama

E = max {25; 22; 15; 20} = 25.

Mun samu da shi, da zabar ga kowane daga cikin zabin da m sakamakon ya ware daga gare su, daya cewa zai kawo mafi kudaden shiga. Wannan yana nufin cewa bayani zai zama a cikin m _1, bisa ga wannan qa'idar, mafi kyau. Ko haifar 25 (C ₁₎ da aka samu a mafi unfavorable yanayi, a lokaci guda yana yiwuwa ya kai gare shi 45 (C _3). Lura sake cewa Wald rarrabẽwa mayar da hankali a kan mutum kamar yadda zai yiwu m line na gudanarwa. A karkashin wasu yanayi, yana yiwuwa ya shiryu da sauran sharudda. Alal misali, wani zaɓi B ₃ iya kawo samu na 90 tare da wani tabbacin sakamakon a 15. Duk da haka, wannan hali ke bayan da ikon yinsa, daga wannan labarin, sabili da haka mun yi la'akari da shi har mu.