Lokacin da dollar da dama? Yadda zaka tantance halin da ake ciki a kan kudin kasuwar da kuma fahimta: dollar zai fada ko tashi?

Amurka dollar a kan ruble ne sosai m cikin 'yan shekarun bayan da 2008-2009 rikicin. Amurka kudin da ya auku a farashin da yawa. A shekarar 2013 da kuma farkon 2014 - shi ya girma sake. Market masana yi imani da cewa halin da ake ciki, kazalika da amsar tambayar ko da dollar zai fada, ne ya rinjayi wani kewayon dalilai, duka biyu tattalin arziki da siyasa.

Farashin man fetur

A cewar daya daga view, da dollar kan ruble a 2014, za su bambanta ƙwarai. A kaifi Yunƙurin a Amurka kudin iya a tare da sauka a hankali rage daga cikin mukamai na Rasha banknotes. A ruble, bisa ga masana, shi ne sun fi mayar dogara a kan farashin man. A mafi girma shi ne, da weaker dollar. Idan farashin man da dama, gwamnatin Rasha yana rama domin a drawdown a cikin kasafin kudin, zai kuma karya darajar da ruble, don taimakawa wajen fitar da fitarwa na "black zinariya" babu kuma.

Duk da haka, tabbatacce tattalin arziki data fito daga Amurka da kungiyar EU sauka a hankali hanyar fita daga dogon koma bayan tattalin arziki, cewa farashin man zai kasance a wani matakin high (a kusa da $ 100 kowace ganga). A ruble game da shi, karfafa resistant Yammacin tattalin arziki. A 2014, a lokacin da farashin man sharply riƙi hanya a kan ƙi, da Rasha kudin bayan wannan rahusa dangi da Amurka. Idan a kan m - shi zai kawai su jira har sai da dollar zai fada.

Ruble - ba rauni

Akwai wani ra'ayi da cewa Rasha ruble, a matsayin dukan, shi ne ba da wani rauni kudin. Kamar yadda aka kiyasta na da magoya bayan wannan rubutu, kasar banki rubutu ya ƙarfafa kasar mu ga karshe shekaru 10 da 60% a cikin real sharuddan. Idan, misali, da jama'a na duk wadannan shekaru, kiyaye tanadi a cikin rubles, sun fili lashe. A lokaci guda, kamar da tabbatarwa daga cikin Rasha kudin, tattalin arziki imani, jima ko daga baya, za a saka farashi a. Duk da manyan girma na man fetur fitarwa, net inflow na kudi (a cikin nau'i na lada, fassarorin) ne low. A Rasha tattalin arziki, ta haka, za a iya fuskanci daga wannan matsalar, da kuma Ruble, a sakamakon, da dollar zai dawo "ni'imar" na baya.

Har yanzu, "katako"

Wasu masana sun yi imanin cewa ruble - kudin, da wanda yana da wuya a sami amincewa: yadda za a nuna hali dollar zai fada ko tashi da Rasha banki rubutu - don hango ko hasashen wuya. Isar da shi a lõkacin da 90s, a lokacin da ruble iya a mafi inopportune lokacin zama ba tsaya da "takarda" a wani abu. Da yawa dalilai al'ada da tasiri a Rasha musayar kudi: shi ne farashin man fetur, da manufofin da Babban Bankin dangane da banki tsarin, wani hali na zaman CB.

Kintace for 2014 A shekara ba sarauta daga abin da ruble aka devalued - sun fi mayar saboda Rasha shiga WTO, saboda haka cewa rabo na shigo iya tashi, da kuma gida samar - rage. Akwai Figures da karshen 2013 da Yuro kai 45 rubles, yayin da wani a cikin 2012, a irin wannan awo da aka dauke ba zai yiwu ba. Saboda haka ba za mu iya yi sarauta daga kara kudi zuwa 50 raka'a na Rasha kudin ga guda Turai. Bi da bi, da tattalin arzikin Amurka a cikin 'yan shekaru, akwai alamun karfafawa, da kuma masana dangane da dollar ne mafi kaffa.

Yana sa hankalta yayata

Duk da cewa kasuwar masana kasance pessimistic game da ruble, babu daya da gaske ba da shawara da su zuba jari a Amurka kudin a matsayin wani nau'i na tanadi. Akwai version cewa yawan jama'a na artificially tsorata gayyace takardunku na tattalin arziki, kazalika da dumama da daban-daban jita-jita, da kuma gulma da nufin - don su tsokane sayen Rasha 'yan ƙasa kamar yadda zai yiwu ya fi girma girma na Amurka kudin. Wadannan "Masters" na banknotes - ba speculators, da kuma bankunan tsakiya. Sũ ne waɗanda suka yanke shawara lokacin da dollar da dama, da kuma a lokacin da ya ke tsiro up.

Akwai wani ban sha'awa ra'ayi: idan Russia za su iya samun wani tasiri a kan mu Central Bank, wadda har yanzu aiki, a maimakon haka, da kiyaye moriyar na oligarchs, ba da mutane, "kwari" na iya sauka zuwa 30 rubles da karshen 2014. Har ila yau, wasu masana jaddada - ko da idan akwai wani kaifi tabarbarewar tattalin arziki da yanayi, da zubar da jihar da ta Reserve Asusun, inda "stock" na game 5 tiriliyan rubles. Wannan isa ya rufe da manya-manyan kasafin kudin gaira.

kaffa view

Bisa ga lura da wani yawan masana a cikin shakka daga kudin ciniki a watan jiya lura, saukarwa, a lokacin da babban bankin Rasha ba su gudanar da wani kasashen waje musayar baki. A hanya na kasa banknotes, ta haka, ya fadi a cikin abin da ake kira "tsaka tsaki corridor" a lokacin da Babban Bankin ba kome: dollar zai tashi ko fada. "Bi-kudin kwandon" kudin a wannan lokaci ba ya wuce da m muhimmancin ga Central Bank of darajar 41 rubles. Akwai muhimman hakkokin kuma tabbas dalilai kara hali na Rasha kudin da dollar kuma Yuro.

Game da farko - akwai wani gagarumin karuwa a cinikin ma'auni na Rasha. Wannan shi ne sun fi mayar saboda da ingantattun kudi halin da ake ciki na Yuro yankin kasashen, wanda su ne babban tattalin arziki abokan na kasar mu. A ECB predicts cewa yankin ta GDP iya girma da 1.1% nan da karshen shekarar 2014. A sakamakon haka, zai iya haddasa wata karuwa a bukatar man fetur da albarkatun na Rasha, kazalika da karuwa a cikin farashin. Bugu da kari, da weakening na ruble da da dollar da Yuro, wanda ya faru a 2014, a gaskiya, inganta cinikayya balance na kasar godiya ga aiki shigo canzawa. Saboda haka shi ne, ba da gaskiya cewa Rasha kasuwanci ne zaune da kuma jira, a lokacin da dollar da dama.

Figures daga Jihar

Rasha Ma'aikatar cigaban tattalin arzikin predicts cewa ruble (a real tasiri sharuddan) a 2014 za su rasa ƙarfi da 7.4% (yayin da wasu lokaci da suka wuce don rage farashin lissafi ya 1.5%). Wannan adadi da aka sanar a mafi ministoci matakin. A 2015, da Rasha kudin zai iya kamar yadda cigaban tattalin arzikin ya yi ĩmãni karfafa ta 0.2% a shekara ta 2016 - 1.1%, da kuma kadan more a shekara ta 2017 - 0.1%. A ruble kan dollar a 2014, bisa ga hukuma, a cikin shekara-shekara talakawan ya 36,3 raka'a (idan aka kwatanta da 33.9 a baya lissafi). A 2015, wani "Buck", ana sa ran kudin 38.8 Rasha banknotes, a shekara ta 2016 kusan guda - 38.7, a shekara ta 2017, ya yi yawa, ba tare da wani canje-canje - 38.5.

Ma'aikatar cigaban tattalin arzikin ma ya yi imanin cewa da talakawan farashin na ganga na danyen man Urals Bartmann-Wulf zai kara zuwa 104 daloli, kuma a 2015-2016. da dama zuwa 100 raka'a na Amurka kudin. A shekara ta 2017, da "black zinariya", a cewar hukumar annabta ya fada a farashin up to 98 daloli a kowace ganga. A jihar ne mai yiwuwa ba mamaki inda dollar zai fada a farashin.

A Figures daga manazarta

Kamar yadda na yanzu hasashen na zuba jari banki UBS, da Rasha, tattalin arzikin a 2014 za su girma da kawai 1.5% (alhãli kuwa a baya lissafin featured da adadi na 2.5%), a shekarar 2015 - 2% (a baya sa ran 2 , 8%). Saboda da revaluation na hangen nesa daga cikin kudi halin da ake ciki a kasar, manazarta sa ran cewa bashi ma'aikata, cewa "dual kudin" kwandon, wanda aka ambata a sama, zai zama daraja 44.2 rubles da karshen 2014 (a baya kira da adadi na 40,7 Rasha kudin raka'a).

Game da positional dangantakar da dollar da Yuro, da karshen 2014, UBS manazarta sa ran cewa, 1 naúrar na American kudin za su kudin 1.25 Turai banknotes. Wannan shi ne wajen a layi tare da tsammanin a kan ruble (37.6 da dollar ta Disamba 2014). A 2015 da Yuro a kan imani da UBS «Buck", fada a farashin da matakin 1.20. A banki ta manazarta sa ran cewa, Rasha babban bankin ba zai shiga tsakani a cikin kudin ciniki, amma ba sarauta daga abin da manufofin kudi na babban bankin zai zama tougher. Amma a cikin kintace ne kusan babu wuri theses a kan ci gaban tattalin arziki a lokacin da dollar da dama.

Ukrainian factor

Rasha masana ba biris da halin da ake ciki a Ukraine da kuma US dollar dangane da hali na kasa kudin mai makwabtaka kasa - kasa kudin. The International Asusun bada lamuni ta ga wani m kudi na 10.5-11 raka'a na banki bayanin kula da "Buck". Akwai kuma wani pessimistic labari a cikin abin da dollar zai iya tashi zuwa 12-13 hryvnia. Daga cikin dalilan - Yunƙurin a gas farashin ga Ukraine, worsening cinikayya haɗin gwiwa tare da kasar Rasha, wanda zai iya fararwa kasar ma'auni na biya gaira da kuma kai wa ga wani ragewar darajar kuɗi na hryvnia. Muhimmanci factor na manufofin da IMF.

Idan asusun zai ba Ukraine a matsayin aro, kasar ta kasa kudin da dollar ƙarfafa. Tranche daga IMF ne iya zama wani tabbatacce sigina wa masu zuba jari daga kasashen waje da kuma 'yan kasuwa. Daya sauran tabbatacce Manuniya - hali na shugabannin Rasha da kuma Amurka da taimako zuwa ga ƙuduri na halin da ake ciki a kasar ta hanyar da diplomasiyya tashar. Amma siyasa game - da tsari ne ma hadaddun sani domin tabbatar ko dollar zai fada a Ukraine.

m kintace

Masana sun nuna cewa, a gane yadda dollar zai nuna hali dangane da "nan gaba ba shakka", shi ne mai sauki - godiya ga gaskiya cewa Central Bank of Rasha wallafa musayar kudi na rana kamar yadda wani jami'in gobe. Yana da yafi wuya yin dogon lokacin da hasashen da cewa don tabbatar a lokacin da dollar ko Yuro zai fada, ba zasu iya ba. Amurka dollar musayar kudi dangane da Rasha ne sosai dogara a kan ƙungiya biyu daga dalilai. Da fari dai, shi ne, kamar yadda irin wannan, da ƙarfin da ruble. Yana dogara a kan halin da ake ciki a Rasha tattalin arziki da kuma siyasa tafiyar matakai. Na biyu - da dollar da sauran duniya ago (musamman da Yuro), to hango ko hasashen da dabi'u na waxanda suke da sauki. Saboda haka, manazarta rika kasuwar 'yan wasa da yawa dõgara a dogon lokaci kintace game da hali na American banknotes.