Stagflation - abin da yake da shi? A siffofin da halaye na stagflation

Saboda haka, mun yi la'akari da manufar "stagflation." Mene ne wannan? Don haka ya kira jihar na tattalin arziki, a lokacin da ƙi, kuma stagnation na samarwa tare da tashin rashin aikin yi da kuma m Yunƙurin a farashin - kumbura. Wannan shi ne, ajalin ma'anar kumbura kan backdrop na tattalin arziki stagnation. A wasu kalmomin, stagflation kira indolent nau'i na tattalin arziki da rikicin. Babban Sanadin wannan tsari ne anti-rikicin matakan, wanda daukawa fitar da jihar da manufofin da monopolies, da wanda wani babban matakin farashin a sau da rikicin.

Wannan lokaci ne sau da yawa amfani a yau a zamani macroeconomics. Wannan sabon abu da ya bayyana ba haka ba da dadewa a sakamakon da cyclical ci gaban kasa da tattalin arziki da kuma samuwar sabon iri na haifuwa na babban birnin kasar.

A definition

A ra'ayi na stagflation aka farko ya ruwaito a 1965 a Birtaniya. Har sai wannan lokacin, da tattalin arzikin da aka yaushe tare da wani karu a farashin, amma, tun shekarar 1960, a kasashe daban-daban, akwai wani kuma baya da tsari, wanda aka kira stagflation. Mẽne ne, kuma abin da suke haddasawa irin wannan tafiyar matakai, masana kimiyya da dama bayyana a cikin hanyoyi daban-daban. Yiwu haddasawa hada da wadannan:

1. Energy crises.
2. Babban kudin kaya kenkenewa a sau da rikicin.
3. Jihar ayyukan Kanmu don inganta tattalin arziki yanayin kasar.
4. Janar duniya na tattalin arzikin da kuma kawar da kariyar.

misalai stagflation

A 1960-1980 shekaru na stagflation lura a da yawa raya ƙasashe na West. Akwai misalai da dama, amma mafi abin tunawa ga Rasha shi ne misali na 1991-1996 ta. A lokacin da wannan lokaci da kasar samu high kumbura , kuma da m dakushe GDP. Alal misali, da kuma tattalin arziki ƙi a Amurka a shekarar 1970. Duk da yake cikin kudi na kumbura a kasar amounted zuwa 5.5-6%, wanda shi ne, bisa manufa, da kuma yi ishãra zuwa stagflation.

ãyõyin stagflation

Game da stagflation na tsarin tattalin arziki za a iya hukunci da wadannan sharudda: karuwa a rashin aikin yi, mai ƙunci jihar da tattalin arziki, da hauhawar farashin kaya matakai a cikin kasar da kuma ragewar darajar kuɗi na kasa kudin a kasuwar kasa da kasa. Wannan sabon tsari na rikicin a cikin tattalin arzikin, a cikin abin da akwai kudi na yawan da ba su da sayen ikon a wata low matakin, amma farashin yake sannu-sannu girma.

Stagflation ne halin da duk wadannan cututtuka, kuma dukansu suna lafiya hõre ta a cikin tattalin arziki da halin da ake ciki a Rasha - ruble rage matakin na aikin ne ma a wata low matakin, akwai wani janar dakushe tattalin arziki. Shi ne saboda wannan dalilin, tattalin arziki ce game da yiwuwar stagflation a Rasha. Gaskiya, manazarta yi imani da cewa irin wannan matakai ne yanzu ba a cikin tattalin arzikin da yawa raya ƙasashe shi ne, amma shi iya wuya zama consolation. The sabon abu na stagflation, abin da shi ne, ko kuma wajen, ba tukuna cikakken karatu da tattalin arziki. An yi imani da cewa irin wannan jiha da tattalin arzikin o ƙarin bace kamar yadda sauri kamar yadda faruwa. Amma abu daya manazarta yarda: stagflation ya kunsa kawai mummunan sakamakon.

Mene ne sakamakon da stagflation

Stagflation, kamar yadda aka ambata riga, yana da mummunan tasiri a kan tattalin arzikin. Its sakamakon - shi ne karkatar da tattalin arziki da kuma fitowan da m rikicin, kamar wani raguwa a matakin tsaro na 'yan kasa, da rashin aikin yi da kuma zamantakewa shigewa na wasu segments na yawan jama'ar, da dakushe GDP da kuma karkatar da kudi da kuma bashi tsarin.

Phillips kwana

A matsayin mai sauki Keynesian model na tattalin arzikin iya zama ko dai hauhawar farashin kaya ko rashin aikin yi. A lokaci guda, biyu ba zai iya faruwa tsari, amma dangane da empirical nazarin gudanar a 50-60-ies., Masana harkokin tattalin suka tabbatar da cewa irin wannan dangantaka ta wanzu. Stagflation da Phillips kwana alama a barga, kuma ake iya faɗi kishiya dangantaka tsakanin kumbura, kuma rashin aikin yi.

Dangantaka tsakanin wadannan biyu sigogi inversely na gwargwado, saboda haka za mu iya ɗauka cewa akwai wani madadin, da kuma dangantaka tsakanin su. Idan Phillips kwana za a gyarawa a wuri guda, sa'an nan mutane, ma'ana da tattalin arziki da halin da ake ciki, za su yanke abin da yake mafi kyau don amfani don inganta halin da ake ciki - kunna ko hana kasafin kudi siyasa.

Yadda za a kauce stagflation

A bisa ga al'ada, domin halin da ake ciki a cikin tattalin arzikin matakan amfani an iyakance shi ne kawai da redistribution na overall bukatar, wanda, a gaskiya, ba zai tasiri a imbalances na aiki kasuwa da kuma tsarin na mamayar a cikin kasuwar. A wannan yanayin, da kudi na kumbura fara tashi a baya fiye da aka samu cikakken aikin yi. Alal misali, magudi da tara bukatar ta hanyar amfani da tsabar kudi da kuma kasafin kudi matakan jagoranci kawai zuwa ga makoma kawar da tattalin arzikin Phillips kwana.

Za stagflation a Rasha

Saboda kaifi ragewar darajar kuɗi da ruble gwani al'umma suna ƙara yin damuwa kintace. Masana sun ce cewa irin wannan fall ba ma a cikin sau da rikicin kudi na duniya. Saboda haka, an nuna cewa, Rasha na fuskantar stagflation. Mẽne ne da kuma abin da za su iya juya su da tattalin arziki, da muka riga tattauna. Babu wani abu mai kyau ga tattalin arziki halin da ake ciki, Rasha ba hallara a matsayin stagflation hadawa lokaci daya karkatar da tattalin arziki da kuma hauhawar farashin kaya.

Bisa ga Analyst

Za stagflation a Rasha? Mẽne ne, idan Russia gano? Ko da yake shi gaba zato a kan m tattalin arziki, unsubstantiated da kuma ba shi barata? Saboda haka, idan ka yi imani da da'awar da Center for Higher School of tattalin arziki, sa'an nan Rasha zai fuskanci wannan m matsala. Its m kintace nazari masana bayyana kamar haka. Kamar yadda aka sani, stagflation - wani sulhu da tsari, a cikin abin da daya daga cikin jam'iyyun da sanin karkatar masana'antu aiki.

Shin akwai shaida ga wannan ƙi? Idan kun tuna bara sakamakon, da Rasha rufe shi da wani gwargwado na ci gaban tattalin arziki a 1.3%. A karshe taron tattalin arzikin majalisar shugaban kasar Rasha Putin V. V. tsage gaskiyar cewa, 'yan kasashen a duniya nuna irin wannan GDP girma. Kuma wasu sun lura da wani digo na wannan nuna alama. Don kwatanta, da canji a cikin GDP a Italiya, inda ta fadi ta 1.9%, da kuma girma da kawai 0.2% a Faransa. Saboda haka, za mu iya cewa da masana 'kintace ne ungrounded, kuma ba haka ba dadi da tattalin arziki na Rasha, kamar yadda suke kokarin nuna. Amma kar ka manta da cewa a cikin shekara ta gabata, a 2012, Rasha ta ci gaban tattalin arziki ya kai 3.4%.

stagflation sauran gefen ce m Yunƙurin a farashin a kasar. Kuma a gaskiya, bisa ga statistics, a Rasha, mabukaci farashin ya tashi da 6.5% a bara. Don kwatanta: a cikin EU sun tashi da kashi 1%. A musamman, mai ƙarfi karuwa daga cikin farashin nuna a kan abinci samfurin kungiyar - by 6.2%. Idan muka sake kwatanta wannan adadi da data a Tarayyar Turai, da kuma a can suka girma da kawai 1.4%.

Yadda suna da Figures a 2014

Farashin kayayyakin abinci ya ci gaba da girma a wannan shekara. A cewar masana, su girma zai zama fiye da bayyane, musamman idan farashin karuwa da kayan lambu, 'ya'yan itãcen marmari, kiwo da kuma kifi kayayyakin, giya da kuma ayyuka ga jama'a. Kamar yadda irin wannan joyless kintace, shi ne wata ila cewa kumbura a kasar domin shekara zai iya tashi zuwa 6%, wato, shi zai zama 1.5% fi yadda index, wanda nada Babban Bankin.

Mafi m, da ruble zai hankali raunana ko na dogon lokaci. Wannan shi ne saboda da yawa dalilai kamar akan rage shigo da, stagnation a cikin masana'antu, da karancin kudin a kasar. Komai, ya kara da cewa, da kuma geopolitical rashin zaman lafiya. A HSE lura da cewa domin canza wannan halin da ake ciki, wajibi ne a samar da wani zurfi ragewar darajar kuɗi na kudin.

Ya kamata a kula zuwa wani muhimmin al'amari na stagflation, wato, da matakin da rashin aikin yi a kasar. Mafi kwanan nan, gwamnatin girman kai ya bayyana cewa, yawan marasa aikin yi a Rasha na tsawon shekaru goma shi ne mafi ƙasƙanci. Kuma wannan shĩ ne harka. A shekarar 2013, yawan marasa aikin yi ya game 5.5%. Amma da tattalin arzikin a Rasha slows da girma, saboda haka, shi ne za a sa ran cewa za a yi karin m. An kimanta cewa, a karshen shekarar 2014 da yawan marasa aikin yi zai iya zama fiye da 6%. Duk da haka, saurin karuwa da wannan nuna alama ba a sa ran.